Dr Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, acting President of the German Marshall Fund, met with 12 members of the AAPA via Zoom from her headquarters in Brussels to share her observations on key events of 2024.
The re-election of Donald Trump is a confirmation of a deep trend that has been shaping US domestic and foreign policy over the past 15-20 years, she said. Having recently visited 10 US states, she was struck by the feelings she encountered of insecurity and mistrust among Americans of their own democratic institutions, and she sees this trend spreading within Europe. She pointed out that a “critical tilt to the right” is already in evidence in Germany, France, Italy, Central Europe and the Nordic countries.
De Hoop Scheffer also cited “an acceleration of shifting alliances” as a concern: Russia’s reliance on China to sustain its war effort in Ukraine; possible discord between Russia and Iran over the collapse of Syria’s Assad dynasty, and the global southern hemisphere as the new battleground. For example, France’s forced military exit from Africa could put more influence in the hands of Vladimir Putin, she opined.
Regarding Trump’s intention to levy trade tariffs, she thought these would be used as diplomatic policy bargaining tool to win concessions over issues such as increased European defense spending.