AAPA meeting with transatlantic expert Nicole Bacharan.
Europeans are closely tracking Tuesday’s US elections, with many fearful of what a second Trump presidency will mean for the NATO alliance, trade, the war in Ukraine and the spreading Middle East conflict, analyst Nicole Bacharan told the AAPA recently — even as his rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, remains a largely unknown quantity for Europe.
“He (Donald Trump) really doesn’t like us,” said Bacharan, adding, “there is a sense of basic hostility.” Still, she added, “there’s no reason to think we’ll have a special friend,” if Harris clinches the presidency. “But not an enemy.”
An expert on US society and transatlantic relations, Bacharan said she doubted Trump would pull the US out of NATO if elected, but he would nonetheless weaken the alliance by undermining its basic principles, notably Article 5 (an attack on one would be considered an attack on all). Trump would also erase Ukraine’s hopes of joining NATO she said, notably if he strikes a deal with Russia to end the war – as he’s promised.
Even so, she added, “I don’t see the Europeans abandoning Ukraine from one day to the next because there is no more money coming from Washington or because Donald Trump is president.”
Europeans also fear a trade war under a Trump presidency “that could destroy all of our economies.” Not so under a Harris presidency, but it would not be “smooth sailing” either, she said.
On the Middle East, Bacharan said it was unclear what kind of support Trump might offer Israel, if he’s elected — despite his backing by the Israeli right. “Donald Trump is not someone who is looking for a war,” Bacharan said.
Also unclear is the election’s potential fallout in Europe — and its surging far right.
Like in the US, she said, basic facts and the truth are under dispute. Europe “has already gone a long way to not agreeing to facts anymore,” Bacharan said. France is a case in point, she said, where for the first time, critics suggested the June/July legislative elections were rigged.
At the same time, far right parties might be reluctant to adopt Trump’s chaotic and divisive style, Bacharan said. In France for example, she noted, the National Rally has worked hard to project a “clean” and responsible image in parliament.